Why orange juice has never been more expensive

Mimosas have a simple recipe: one part champagne, one part orange juice. Soon, though, the tipple maybe even less affordable—and not because sparkling wine is ever more expensive. Concentrate orange juice futures in New York, which soft-drink producers use to hedge against price swings, have quadrupled since late 2021. They hit an intraday high of $5.80 a pound on September 9th, their fifth record in a week.

The problem is that the market for oranges to make concentrate is very concentrated. Growth of the fruit in Florida, once the world’s second-biggest producer, has wilted by 92% in the past 20 years after being hit by pests, hurricanes and rising costs. Other growers, such as Mexico and Spain, largely supply the fresh fruit market. That leaves Brazil, which accounts for 70% of the world’s production and a similar share of exports. And now it, too, is in trouble.
At the start of the year, the market already faced bitter prospects. After yet another cataclysmic harvest in Florida—the worst since before the Second World War—global stocks looked bare. Then, in May, growers from São Paulo, Brazil’s main orange-producing state, forecast that the year’s crop would fall by 24% compared with the year before, after an ultra-hot flowering season. Farmers also faced a resurgence in citrus greening, an untreatable bacterial disease that turns oranges sour before killing the tree.
But now even that gloomy forecast looks optimistic, says Andrés Padilla of Rabobank, a Dutch lender. Brazil’s drought is getting worse—parts of São Paulo have seen no rain for four months. Greening is out of control: in swathes of the state two-thirds of trees are infected. Bigger farmers can afford to protect groves by using nets or insecticides. For smaller ones, the only fix is to root out potentially diseased trees. High prices mean many prefer to keep their groves in the ground, so infections persist.
In many fields damage has already been done, meaning this year’s harvest is doomed. The next few could be just as bad. New trees take four years to bear fruit; they too could be exposed to greening. Droughts could sap yields again. Planting in other regions may help, but suitable areas lack water access and are too far away from juice plants, which means that progress is very slow. Some farmers may opt to plant less risky crops than oranges, such as sugar cane.
Despite high prices, global demand for juice remains strong, because consumers are affluent enough to pay more. This may lift producers’ profits a little, but not by much, for they also face higher costs. Shortages may start to occur soon, probably outside America and Europe, which will be prioritised by retailers as the largest orange juice markets. Barring a miracle, things look rotten for seekers of Vitamin C.
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